Underestimating Joe Biden

"The best thing for a politician is to be consistently underestimated," said Bill Clinton during a panel discussion a few years ago. "I was pretty good at that," quipped his co-panelist, George W. Bush.

So is Joe Biden. Underestimating President Biden is one of the most important features of American politics today. You cannot understand his presidency or the 2024 campaign without accounting for it.

Consider the debt ceiling. As the deadline approached last month, a narrative took hold that Biden was mishandling the negotiation (e.g., "Is Joe Biden Botching the Debt Ceiling Fight?" (New York Magazine), "Biden risks 'huge backlash from left' in debt ceiling talks" (Axios).

When details of the president's agreement with House Republicans emerged, it was "hard to conceive of an outcome more favorable to Biden," wrote Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post. 

What causes this pattern of underestimation? Factors include ageism (he can't be sharp in his 80s), assumptions based on his stutter, occasional malapropism and blue-collar roots (he's not bright or sophisticated) and last, his five decades of public service (he's not a transformational or inspiring figure).

As for the future: each time Biden outperforms low expectations—whether it's a speech, a debate, a legislative negotiation, a show of leadership in foreign affairs—he reaps outsized benefit. He's also operating in a political campaign landscape that is quietly more favorable than it appears. So don't be surprised by continuing pessimism about President Biden's electoral prospects, nor by his ability to beat the odds.