News & views.
A collection of stories about data, public opinion and politics and news about our firm.
Where have you gone, Greatest Generation?
We're fascinated by a paper published last fall that studies the decline in support for democracy in the United States between 1995 to 2019. The results show a clear pattern of generational decline, with each successive birth cohort since the 1940s being less supportive of democracy than the previous one.
Public Opinion and the Future of AI
Americans' darkening view of AI is important because public opinion will affect how policymakers shape the regulatory landscape.
Polling's Dramatic Evolution
A new Pew Research Center study shows a strikingly fast-paced evolution in how public opinion research is conducted.
Debating the Decline of American Values
A new opinion survey from the Wall Street Journal and the University of Chicago has set off a debate over the state of our national character. The poll suggests patriotism is fading in America, with a drop of nearly 30 points in the number of Americans who say patriotism is very important to them.
The Election Prediction Fallacy
We are seeing the McNamara Fallacy at work in the media-based election prediction industry, presently focused on the midterms. A basic problem is that opinion polls are not designed to predict things, they are designed to give a snapshot of opinion at a moment in time. A larger problem involves the many difficult-to-measure variables shaping today's political context, from a society-altering global pandemic to a seismic partisan realignment reshaping both political parties. Old models for understanding politics, like the paramount importance of presidential approval on midterm outcomes, may not hold. The bottom line is this: we do not know what is going to happen, and we have to get comfortable with uncertainty.
Listening Matters
A civic engagement group called NYC Speaks conducted this spring what may be the most extensive policy survey in New York City history. It's an inspired effort to lead by first understanding what people care and worry about, and we hope other public leaders take note.
How Business Leaders Can Navigate Roe and Other Matters
Our view is simple: when you see a gap between public opinion and government action – even when the gap is not as stark as the below graphic – step into that void. That's a safe space to raise your voice.
The Stark Gap Between the Supreme Court and the American Public on Abortion
The vast gap between the two positions points to a Republican position on abortion that is not just out of step with public opinion, it’s diametrically opposed to it.
Peloton and the Power of Asking Questions
To understand someone's values and priorities, you have to ask the right questions.
New Jersey pollster: Maybe it's time to get rid of election polls
As a firm that puts research at the center of everything we do, we have occasionally surprised clients and friends by arguing for an end to public horse race polling.
Americans agree to disagree
The Pew Research Center has released an update to its political typology study, a long-running effort to define distinct groups within the American electorate.
A West Texas Roadmap for Mitigating the Impacts of Energy Development
If Americans are going to make a dent in reducing carbon emissions — and polling suggests they want to — they are going to have to grapple with the tradeoffs required. An effort in West Texas offers a roadmap for helping people work through the issues.
Listening Matters: A Reminder of the Power of Focus Groups
Public opinion polls overshadow focus groups as a form of research thanks in part to the media's obsession with forecasting election outcomes. But insights we have gleaned from recent focus groups on COVID-19 remind us just how valuable focus groups can be.
New Research: North Texans Split on COVID-19 Concerns
A study of residents in the Dallas-Fort Worth area reveals a fault line in public opinion on COVID-19 between people who are more concerned about the economic impact of the pandemic and people who are more concerned about health outcomes. This is among the key findings from our work on behalf of Texas 2036, a group focused on the future of the state's economy.
The Power of Listening
"It is only by listening that we engage, understand, empathize, cooperate and develop as human beings," writes journalist Kate Murphy in a recent op-ed, distilling the key points of her new book, You're Not Listening.
A Provocative Take on Swing Voters
The conventional view of the American electorate and presidential campaigns is that roughly 55 percent of eligible voters turn out to vote and that election winners are determined by the 15 percent of "swing voters" who switch between parties. This is an outdated, Beltway-centric view, according to Bitecofer in a recent Politico profile.
When Smart Brevity Turns Simplistic
Focus groups serve a vital function, helping researchers explore voters' attitudes and the values underpinning them. A form of qualitative research, focus groups do not generalize the views of a broader population – that's where quantitative methods such as surveys come in. Axios is brushing past this important difference, drawing sweeping conclusions from its groups, such as the December 16 story by Alexi McCammond below.
Restoring Public Trust
When a company breaks trust with the public, its performance suffers. How can the company restore trust? By fulfilling the promises it makes to different audiences, argue Sandra Sucher and Shalene Gupta in a recent Harvard Business Review article.
Extreme Views Can Amplify Polarization
Public opinion data plays a central role in venture capital legend Mary Meeker's annual Internet Trends Report, and this year is no exception. For example, her analysis of Internet usage reveals deep ambivalence with living our lives online.